WARMER OCEANS AND HOTTER TENSIONS: FISH, CONFLICT, RESOURCE COMPETITION & CLIMATE CHANGE

This paper explores the intensifying relationship between climate change and international conflict over fish as a commodified, yet vulnerable, natural resource. Fish disputes ranging from diplomatic tensions to Militarized Fishing Disputes (MFDs) are increasingly frequent, fueled by overexploitation, ecological degradation, and a legal vacuum in high seas governance. Using a quasi-experimental design, this study evaluates whether climate-induced variability, proxied by El Niño and La Niña events, contributes to a rise in fishing conflicts by altering fish migration and availability. Drawing on conflict datasets and climatological indices, the study investigates causality while accounting for key confounding factors. The research builds on Resource Conflict Theory and commodification frameworks to demonstrate how fish, as a renewable yet ungoverned resource, have become a flashpoint of geopolitical competition. Through case studies and historical precedent, it also examines how state behavior, economic incentives, and regulatory shortcomings converge to fuel tensions in warming oceans. The findings highlight the urgent need for global cooperation and enforceable maritime governance to mitigate climate-related conflict escalation. region.